Battle Ships—A Forecast

Density forecast revisions and forecast efficiency

We explain that revisions to successive density forecasts of the same outcome, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, need not be unpredictable, unlike those to conditional mean forecasts, even when the forecaster uses information efficiently. However one can still test the efficiency of fixed-event conditional density forecasts, similarly to conditional mean forecasts, by t...

The last battle.

When Australian soldiers returned from World War I they were of ered the chance to settle on ‘land i t for heroes’. Promotional material painted a picture of prosperous farms and contented families, appealing to returned servicepeople and their families hoping for a fresh start. Yet just 20 years after the inception of these soldier settlement schemes, fewer than half of the settlers remained o...

Arctic battle deepens

Researchers were hoping the dramatic melting of Arctic ice recorded last year may have been exceptional, but the latest evidence suggests that this year's summer melting has been equally dramatic, with some scientists now predicting that the Arctic may be ice-free in the summer in as little as five year's time. While there has been much hand-wringing about the ecological consequences of such de...

Battle of the Biofuels

Battle for the Mind

The appearance of this book in a cheap edition is to be heartily welcomed and we hope it will be widely read?especially by those misled by earlier reviews into thinking it a violent attack on religion-It is of course nothing of the kind, but sets out to study the psychological mechanisms involved in certain forms of "religious conver-sion" as well as in psychotherapy and in "brain-washing". It ...